Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Snap general elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are predicted to gain representation, but none is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after alliance talks that could last months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen every four years – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the eighties to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "street terrorists", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who joined political life just recently, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its platform.
Three additional groups look likely to be important players in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even sure of representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with several – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, typically the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a mix of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
